Why not just rank buyers by price × acceptance?

Price × acceptance is exactly right only when a declined lead is gone. If most leads survive a decline, a high payer that rarely accepts costs little by going first, so it can earn more there. The calculator ranks by a·p ÷ (d + (1 − d)·p), which becomes price × acceptance when every decline loses the lead and plain price when declines cost nothing.

If declines cost nothing, does the order matter?

Not for how many leads you sell: with no drop-off every lead reaches every buyer until one accepts, so the share sold is the same in any order. It still matters for revenue, and then the best order is simply highest price first. Drop-off and latency are what make a price-ranked waterfall lose money.

Where do the acceptance rates and drop-off come from?

From your own ping logs: each buyer's accept rate on the leads you offered it, and the share of leads that are lost or go stale between pings. Real routing predicts both per lead, so the best order can differ from one lead to the next.

What does the calculator leave out?

Buyer caps, filters and budgets, returns, and any link between buyers' decisions. Those belong in the optimizer, as the article describes; this calculator shows the effect of order alone.

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Lead Routing Calculator

How much more does a lead earn when buyers are pinged in value order instead of a fixed waterfall?

List your buyers in the waterfall order you use today, with what each pays and how often it accepts. The calculator pings them one at a time, finds the order that earns the most per lead, and shows the difference. The buyers and numbers below are an illustrative example, not benchmarks.

1. Buyer A

Pays if accepted ($)Acceptance rate (%)

2. Buyer B

Pays if accepted ($)Acceptance rate (%)

3. Buyer C

Pays if accepted ($)Acceptance rate (%)

4. Buyer D

Pays if accepted ($)Acceptance rate (%)

Leads lost per declined ping25%Leads per month10,000

Waterfall revenue / lead

$10.54

Best-order revenue / lead

$12.34

Uplift per lead

$1.79 (+17%)

Uplift per month

$17,915

Leads sold, waterfall

33.3%

Leads sold, best order

47.6%

Your waterfall

Buyer A: $50.00 × 5%
Offered 100.0% of leads, earns $2.50 / lead
Buyer B: $40.00 × 10%
Offered 71.2% of leads, earns $2.85 / lead
Buyer C: $30.00 × 20%
Offered 48.1% of leads, earns $2.89 / lead
Buyer D: $20.00 × 40%
Offered 28.9% of leads, earns $2.31 / lead

Best order

Buyer C: $30.00 × 20%
Offered 100.0% of leads, earns $6.00 / lead
Buyer D: $20.00 × 40%
Offered 60.0% of leads, earns $4.80 / lead
Buyer B: $40.00 × 10%
Offered 27.0% of leads, earns $1.08 / lead
Buyer A: $50.00 × 5%
Offered 18.2% of leads, earns $0.46 / lead

Ranking by price × acceptance alone earns $12.24 per lead here, $0.10 less than the best order. That ranking is exactly right only when a declined lead is lost; price alone is right when declines cost nothing. The best order sits between, ranking each buyer by price × acceptance ÷ (drop-off + (1 − drop-off) × acceptance). It assumes buyers decide independently, acceptance rates and drop-off are the same for every lead, and buyers have no caps; real routing predicts them per lead and enforces caps and filters.

How it works

A waterfall offers every lead to buyers in a fixed order, usually highest price first, until one accepts. Enter 3 to 5 buyers with what each pays and how often it accepts, plus how many leads you lose after each declined ping, and the calculator finds the order that earns the most per lead and what the change is worth each month. The default buyers and drop-off are an illustrative example, not benchmarks.

Buyers are pinged one at a time and each accepts independently with its acceptance rate. After a decline, a share d of leads is lost (the consumer leaves or the lead goes stale), so the next buyer sees only what is left. Expected revenue per lead adds up, for each buyer in the order, the share of leads still on offer when it is pinged × its acceptance rate × its price. Swapping two neighbouring buyers shows the higher-earning order always puts first the buyer with the larger index a·p ÷ (d + (1 − d)·p), so sorting by that index gives the best of all orders (checked against every ordering of random cases). When declines cost nothing (d = 0) the index is the price, so a price-ranked waterfall is already best and every order sells the same share of leads; when every decline loses the lead (d = 1) it is price × acceptance, the expected value the article ranks by. Monthly uplift is the per-lead difference × leads per month.

q_1 = 1, \qquad q_{k+1} = q_k\,(1 - p_k)(1 - d)

R = \sum_{k=1}^{n} a_k\,p_k\,q_k, \qquad S = \sum_{k=1}^{n} p_k\,q_k

I_k = \frac{a_k\,p_k}{d + (1 - d)\,p_k}

U = (R^{*} - R_W)\,L

where

$k$: position in the order (1 is pinged first)
$a_k$: price buyer k pays if it accepts
$p_k$: buyer k's acceptance rate
$d$: share of leads lost after each declined ping
$q_k$: share of leads still on offer when buyer k is pinged
$R,\ S$: expected revenue per lead and share of leads sold
$I_k$: ranking index; the best order sorts it highest first
$R^{*},\ R_W$: revenue per lead in the best order and the waterfall
$U,\ L$: monthly uplift and leads per month

Frequently asked questions

Why not just rank buyers by price × acceptance?: Price × acceptance is exactly right only when a declined lead is gone. If most leads survive a decline, a high payer that rarely accepts costs little by going first, so it can earn more there. The calculator ranks by a·p ÷ (d + (1 − d)·p), which becomes price × acceptance when every decline loses the lead and plain price when declines cost nothing.
If declines cost nothing, does the order matter?: Not for how many leads you sell: with no drop-off every lead reaches every buyer until one accepts, so the share sold is the same in any order. It still matters for revenue, and then the best order is simply highest price first. Drop-off and latency are what make a price-ranked waterfall lose money.
Where do the acceptance rates and drop-off come from?: From your own ping logs: each buyer's accept rate on the leads you offered it, and the share of leads that are lost or go stale between pings. Real routing predicts both per lead, so the best order can differ from one lead to the next.
What does the calculator leave out?: Buyer caps, filters and budgets, returns, and any link between buyers' decisions. Those belong in the optimizer, as the article describes; this calculator shows the effect of order alone.

Read the articleSmart Routing: Sequencing Lead Offers for Maximum YieldStatic waterfalls leave money on the table. Discover how AI-driven sequence optimization maximizes Yield per Click across every session.

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